Bitcoin (BTC) is moving sideways for the time being after a weak previous month with a significant price discount of 35 percentage points. As long as the BTC rate does not rise sustainably back above 40,000 USD, the sideways phase can be assumed to continue. Investors are currently investing selectively in Altcoins, which is why the BTC dominance cannot noticeably break away from its low of 40 percent.
Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin price caught in a sideways range
BTC course: 37,063 USD (previous week: 40,184 USD)
Resistance / goals: USD 39,240, USD 40,240, USD 41,967, USD 43,030, USD 44,120, USD 44,878, USD 47,070, USD 48,222, USD 51,307 / 50,305, USD 53,005, USD 54,077, USD 56,867, USD 58,386, USD 59,527, USD 61,122, USD 61,771, $ 64,896
Supports: $ 36,636, $ 34,895, $ 33,770, $ 31,010, $ 30,000, $ 28,716, $ 27,563, $ 25,752, $ 23,887, $ 22,222, $ 21,892, $ 19,884,
Bitcoin missed breaking out back above the first major resistance at $ 40,240 in the past seven days of trading. In the days that followed, the BTC rate corrected again to support at USD 33,770 before the bulls took over again. However, since Bitcoin still ranks below the EMA200 (blue), it is currently too early to speak of an end to the correction. Rather, it is important for investors to determine a new “fair” value. One bright spot is that the BTC price, as mentioned in the last article, did not develop a new low. Thus, the immediate risk of a renewed sell-off seems to be somewhat contained for the time being. The lid currently seems to be on the top and bottom. As long as there is no new dynamic in the market, a trading margin of around 20 percent is likely. Experience shows that this can take several weeks of trading.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
Bitcoin price fell back towards USD 33,770 last weekend, but found solid support in this area. Supported by the buy signal on the MACD indicator, buyers came back again and heaved the BTC rate back above USD 36,636 to currently USD 37,063. The bulls must now try to stabilize the BTC rate above USD 36,643 and initiate a new surge towards USD 39,240. If the buyers manage to break through this chart mark on a sustained basis, the massive resistance area between USD 40,240 and USD 43,030 will come into focus again. This is where the MA200 (green) and EMA200 (blue) converge and thus form the make-or-break zone. If Bitcoin overcomes this area, the next potential resist awaits between USD 44,120 and USD 44,878.
If the bulls manage to break through these resistance levels dynamically, Bitcoin should rise to the next price target at USD 47,070. The supertrend can currently be found here in the daily chart. A recapture of this price mark will then lead Bitcoin to USD 48,222. If the bulls manage to keep purchasing power high on a sustained basis, a jump back above USD 50,327 can be expected. Above the USD 50,000, the USD 51,307 first comes into focus. Sustained price strength increases the likelihood of a breakthrough to $ 53,005. Only when Bitcoin overcomes this resistance level at the daily closing price will the next price targets be activated at USD 54,077 and USD 55,817. The maximum price target for the coming weeks is still USD 57,998. It is still too early to predict a possible price increase of up to USD 61,000 and beyond.
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The bears failed in the last seven trading days to generate a new lower low and to send Bitcoin towards USD 30,000 again. However, as long as the bulls cannot sustainably regain the important level of USD 40,240, a new correction wave back below USD 36,643 is possible at any time. If Bitcoin falls below this support at the daily closing price, the dynamic will pick up again and Bitcoin will correct at least towards USD 34,721, but more likely towards USD 33,770. If this support does not last and Bitcoin is again weak, the correction extends to at least USD 31,010. Here the bulls will try again to stabilize the BTC rate. If the BTC rate subsequently falls below this rate mark, a retest of the course low at USD 30,000 should be planned.
If the bears then manage to undercut this strong support at the daily closing price, a relapse to USD 28,716 is likely. Persistent downward momentum leads to a correction widening into the area between $ 27,563 and $ 25,752. A fallback to USD 23,887 is possible at any time without a clear resistance on the part of the buyer. This price level is only slightly above the strong support area between USD 22,222 and USD 21,892. Looking at the order book, a correction to the old breakout level at USD 19,884 is also conceivable. As long as Bitcoin is sustainably defending USD 30,000, this scenario is to be assessed as an alternative chart trend for the coming period.
Bitcoin dominance: BTC dominance on the decline again
The recovery of Bitcoin dominance was short-lived. The market dominance of the crypto reserve currency Bitcoin did not manage to dynamically overcome the important resistance at 44.27 percent and initially bounced off the EMA20 (red). Currently, the Bitcoin dominance in the area of cross support is 42.27 percent. However, it is positive that market power has not fallen back again towards 40.03 percent or below. So there are still chances of bottoming out.
BTC Dominance: Bullish Scenario
The BTC dominance is not really moving any further. In the last few days of trading, the dominance fell back to a new weekly low. If the Bitcoin dominance can stabilize above 40.03 percent, ideally even above 42.27 percent, the area around 43.26 percent moves back into focus. If this chart mark is broken dynamically, a new attack on the EMA20 (red) and the resistance at 44.27 percent are likely. Only when this resist is overcome by the daily closing rate, the 45.71 percent comes back into focus. If the 45.71 percent is also broken sustainably, an increase of up to 47.03 percent is likely. The EMA50 is currently running here (orange).
Should BTC manage to leave this resistance level behind and rise back into the trend channel, the target will initially be 48.67 percent. If the previous week’s high is also overcome, a march through to the psychological 50 percent mark must be planned. Here it will be decided whether the upper edge of the trend channel is targeted or the BTC dominance falls back again. A central bullish price target is 52.19 percent. A breakthrough in this strong resistance opens up further potential. As a result, market dominance could even march through to 53.16 percent. A maximum increase to the horizontal resistance line at 54.23 percent is still possible. As long as the BTC dominance does not increase noticeably, even reaching the 50 percent mark is to be seen as an important first partial success.
BTC Dominance: Bearish Scenario
The interim recovery only lasted for a short time, in the last three trading days the BTC dominance fell back significantly and again failed to overcome the EMA20 (red). The dominance of the crypto key currency is currently fighting again in the area of cross support at 42.27 percent. Should this level of support be abandoned, the area will come back into focus by 40 percent. Again a fight for this brand is to be expected. If the BTC dominance continues to lose ground and also gives up the 40 percent, a correction into the green support zone is conceivable. At the latest at 39.20 percent, the bulls have to show their colors.
Here the upper edge of the support zone is paired with the supertrend, which is why increased resistance is to be expected. Since the lower Bollinger Band also continues sideways, this area should not be abandoned, as otherwise a setback to the maximum bearish price target at 37.67 percent is likely. This is where the absolute low of January 2018 can be found. If there is no significant countermovement, a further downward wave to the psychological mark of 30 percent cannot be ruled out in the medium term. Such a development would give the Altcoins a further boost and sustainably strengthen their position in the overall market.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.82 euros.