Bitcoin course: bears can claim their first partial success

Bitcoin (BTC) has to cope with a sensitive price setback in the last 72 hours of trading. In the short term, the price of the crypto reserve currency even fell briefly below the psychological mark of USD 40,000 before the bulls were able to stabilize the price. The BTC dominance can benefit from current market events and has increased by around five percentage points in the last few days of trading.

Bitcoin (BTC): Consolidation or next price jump

BTC course: 42,299 USD (previous week: 47,863 USD)

Resistance / goals: $ 41,830, $ 42,855, $ 44,147, $ 44,878, $ 46,040, $ 47,070, $ 48,222, $ 49,555, $ 50,325, $ 51,307, $ 53,005, $ 54,077, $ 55,817, $ 57,998, $ 59,470, $ 61,771, $ 64,896 , $ 67,416, $ 69,660, $ 70,856, $ 76,472, $ 77,678

Supports: $ 40,585, $ 39,240, $ 38,537, $ 37,321, $ 36,643, $ 34,899, $ 33,335, $ ​​32,718, $ 31,603, $ 31,010, $ 30,000, $ 29,300, $ 28,795, $ 27,563, $ 26,404, $ 23,887, $ 22,222 , $ 21,892, $ 19,884,

Price analysis based on the value pair BTC / USD on Coinbase

After attempting to stabilize the previous week, the Bitcoin bulls failed to stabilize the BTC rate above the strong resistance at USD 48,222. After the USD 47,070 had been given up, the crypto key currency was sold again at the beginning of the week. Within 48 hours of trading, the Bitcoin price collapsed by 16 percentage points to a new low of USD 39,596. Bitcoin slipped back below the EMA200 (blue) for a short time, but can regain it for the time being this Wednesday afternoon. The first step for the buyer is to dynamically overcome the resistance at USD 42,855 in order to start again at the upper edge of the trend channel in the area of ​​USD 44,878.

Only a stabilization above USD 46,040 and the associated overcoming of the MA200 (green) should provide some relaxation. It is still important to keep the settlement of the Bitcoin options on September 24th as well as the development of the classic stock market in the back of your mind. Right now, billing the auctions at $ 44,000 would hurt the bulls and bears alike the most.

Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)

The bulls’ attempt to move Bitcoin back towards USD 50,000 failed miserably due to key resistance at USD 48,222. Thus, the bulls had to postpone the preliminary decision discussed in the previous week’s analysis in favor of the bears. If the bulls manage to break out dynamically over the now relevant resistance at USD 42,855 in the coming trading days, price targets at USD 44,147 and above at USD 44,878 will initially come into focus. In the area of ​​USD 44,878, the EMA50 (orange) runs alongside the upper edge of the trend channel.

Even a price rise back above this resistance level is still no sign of the all-clear. Between USD 44,878 and USD 46,040 there are two other relevant resists: the MA200 and the MA20 (red). The rise in the BTC rate will therefore continue to be rocky. The trailing edge of the current corrective movement is already waiting at USD 40,070. If this resistance level is regained, a strong battle between bulls and bears can be expected again at USD 48,222 at the latest. If the bulls manage to stabilize the BTC price above this time, the zone between USD 49,555 (supertrend) and USD 50,327 will come back into focus. Even a direct surge to $ 51,307 would be conceivable.

The rocky road to new all-time highs

In order to overcome the blue resistance area and march towards USD 53,005 again, strong buying power from the bull herd is required again. Only a sustained breakout above this resistance level opens up room to at least USD 54,077. In the best case scenario, the bulls will also overrun this resistance level and march up to USD 55,817. This resistance has already represented a strong hurdle in the past. If the daily closing price of USD 55,817 can be broken, the overarching target price of USD 57,998 moves into focus.

This price level represents the last relevant resistance on the way to USD 60,000. If the rally continues to gain momentum in the coming months and the USD 61,771 is also broken, a break through to the all-time high is likely. If Bitcoin overcomes the USD 64,896 sustainably, a subsequent increase up to the 138 Fibonacci extension at USD 67,416 is conceivable. In perspective, the zone between USD 69,660 and USD 70,856 is moving into focus as the target area. The maximum price targets are still USD 76,472 and USD 77,678 for the time being.

Bearish scenario (Bitcoin price)

The bears took advantage of the relapse below $ 47,070 and sent the Bitcoin rate into a sharp correction. The Bitcoin course broke through all supports and only found a stop again just above the lifeline at USD 39,240. The bulls managed to push the BTC rate back above the EMA200 in the last 18 hours of trading, but a strong hurdle is now waiting at USD 42,855. If the bears manage to cap the Bitcoin price and sell it back below the EMA200, another wave of sales is conceivable. If Bitcoin again falls below the green support zone between USD 41,321 and USD 40,585, the selling pressure is likely to increase further. Then the USD 39,240 and USD 38,537 as the first price targets come into focus.

Surrendering the USD 38,537 would have a signal effect. Then the bears will target the 23rd Fibonacci retracement at 37,321. Below this support, a relapse to $ 36,643 is likely. If there is no significant reversal, even USD 34,899 and USD 33,355 could be reached quickly. Here is the 61 Fibonacci retracement, which is the last strong support above USD 30,000. Weaker support levels towards USD 30,000 can be found at USD 31,603 and USD 31,010, respectively. In the short term, the purple support area is likely to act as a relevant target area. If the low of June 22nd at USD 28,795 is broken through in the medium term, price targets of USD 26,399 up to the psychological USD 20,000 must be taken into account.

Bitcoin dominance: breakout from downtrend channel successful

Price analysis Bitcoin dominance (BTC dominance) KW35
Bitcoin dominance based on values ​​of Cryptocap shown

The dominance of the crypto reserve currency Bitcoin continues to recover and was able to leave the downtrend channel upwards in the last few days of trading. As a result, the BTC dominance rose to the resistance at 43.05 percent, before market power fell slightly again to the current 41.99 percent. The Bitcoin dominance is thus again trading slightly above the EMA20 (red), but is wedged in on the upper side by the upper Bollinger Band and the EMA50 (orange).

BTC Dominance: Bullish Scenario

The dominance of the crypto reserve currency can recover further in this trading week and break out of the downtrend channel in a dynamic movement. Although the BTC dominance failed, as expected, in overcoming the resistance at 43.05 percent in the first attempt, the bulls were able to avert a relapse below the 41.22 percent and thus back into the trend channel. As long as Bitcoin’s market power can stabilize above this support, another attempt to increase towards the weekly high is likely. If a breakout above 43.05 percentage points succeeds and the EMA50 is also overcome, the lower edge of the red box at 43.60 percent comes into focus. If the BTC dominance succeeds in breaking through this resistance level dynamically, an increase to the next target price of 44.54 percentage points should be planned. Here the Bitcoin dominance rebounded again and again towards the south.

If the Bitcoin dominance also leaves this chart mark behind, the upper edge of the red box at 45.10 percent should be considered as a price target. Here the supertrend can be found in the daily chart at 45.03 percent. If this price level can be overcome in the coming trading weeks, resistance at 45.71 percent and 46.33 percent will come into focus as targets. If the 46.33 percent can also be won back over the long term, the BTC dominance should increase further and target 47.03 percent or even 47.59 percent. Here, the Bitcoin dominance could initially bounce off.

If, however, a breakout above this resistance level succeeds in the medium term, a march through to the cross resistance of EMA200 (blue) and MA200 (green) at 48.29 percent is likely. Just above there is another strong resistance area with the orange resistance zone. Between 48.67 percent and 49.26 percent, a directional decision for the coming months will be made at the latest. If this area is overcome and the high from July 2021 at 49.26 percentage points is regained, Bitcoin dominance is likely to march back above the 50 percent mark towards 50.97 percent.

BTC Dominance: Bearish Scenario

It is currently working after Bitcoin dominance has bottomed out. The fact that the area could again be defended by 40 percentage points could ensure a further upward movement in Bitcoin dominance in the short term. Only when the support level is dynamically undershot at 41.22 percent, a retest of support at 40.66 percent should be planned. If the BTC dominance falls below this again, a third test of the psychological 40 percent mark and the annual low of 39.66 percent is conceivable. At the same time, the likelihood of a relapse to a new annual low continues to rise. As a result, the green support zone between 39.21 percent and 37.67 percent should be tested. If the 37.67 percentage points do not stop and the BTC dominance continues to tend to be weak, the probability of a correction widening to the psychological level of 30 percentage points increases.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.85 euros.

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